Playoff scenarios for high school football teams in Butler County heading into Week 8
We have one week left in the regular season and then KSHSAA's weirdly named Week 9 kicks off the following week.
Most teams in the county still have a lot of playoff positioning to do with one game remaining. Some teams can finish as high as first in their district or division. There are some, like Circle, doesn't matter where they finish, they will host a playoff game.
Here are the playoff scenarios for all nine football playing teams in Butler County:
Current place: 4th in 5A West
Average Point differential (APD): 7.29
Week 8 game: at Goddard (Thursday)
Best case scenario: No. 1 in 5A West.
If Andover beats Goddard by more than 13 and gets some help, such as Wichita Northwest, Wichita Heights and Wichita East all win their games by 13 or more, the Trojans can be the No. 1 seed in the 5A West. They would finish with 8.0 AVD.
Worst case scenario: No. 9 in 5A West
It would be a worst scenario, such as getting blown out by Goddard and Northwest beating Hays by a slim margin. You can tack on teams like Maize beating Hutch by a wide margin. Wichita Heights could upset Kapaun and that would put a wrench into it as well. Win and you host a playoff game. Lose and worry about everyone else.
Most likely scenario: No. 4th in 5A West
Kapaun and Carroll should roll in their wins and the only real chance to move up would be a Hays loss by nine points or more to Wichita Northwest.
Current place: 3rd in 4A West
Average Point differential (APD): 6.43
Week 8 game: vs. Arkansas City
Best case scenario: No. 1 in 4A West
A win and a Wamego loss and the Jaguars are the No. 1 seed in the west. A win, a Buhler loss and a Wamego win would put Central as the No. 2 seed. The Jags will try to get some revenge on Ark City after the upset in the playoffs last year. Do that and you put yourself in prime position. I'd write about what happens if Wamego lost but that's not happening to Abilene (0-7).
Worst case scenario: No. 6 in 4A West
Things don't get as wild as it does for Andover but the Jaguars could see themselves slip a bit with a bad loss. If that was to happen and Circle would blow out Buhler, we could be looking at a tie as both teams will have 4.0 APD. That would go to basically a coin flip by KSHSAA. In their tiebreaker scenarios, they'd draw for the tiebreaker. They would either finish fifth or six, depending on who was drawn.
Most likely scenario: No. 3 in 4A West
Buhler is a slight favorite over Circle and Wamego should dominate a winless Abilene team. As long as Central doesn't get upset, they finish third in the West.
Current place: 5th in 4A West
Average Point differential (APD): 4.71
Week 8 game: vs. McPherson
Best case scenario: No. 3 in 4A West
Augusta needs some help, like a miracle. If Wamego and Andover Central both get upset and the Orioles blow out McPherson, they could jump to the second seed in the West. Wamego isn't getting upset so, realistically we're looking at third in the West with some help.
Worst case scenario: No. 8 in 4A West
Like most teams before, if you lose you're going to drop and there could be some wild decisions. The one thing we do know is they'll host a playoff game no matter what. It's just dependent on who they'll play. Even with a blow out loss, the chances of falling to eighth are pretty tough. They'd have to get some damage.
Most likely scenario: No. 6 in 4A West
It's going to be tough to move up without some crazy upsets happening. So, even with a loss, they're locked into the middle. if Circle beats Buhler, it won't be a big blow out and that goes for Indy, too. So, sixth in the West.
Current place: 6th in 2A-6
District record & Average Point differential (APD): 0-4, -21.0
Week 8 game: at Garden Plain
Bluestem has been eliminated from post season competition. They'll most likely play Lyons next week in a consolation Week 9 game.
Current place: 7th in 4A West
Average Point differential (APD): 2.71
Week 8 game: at Buhler
Best case scenario: No. 4 in 4A West
A tiebreaker with Andover Central and some help with a coin flip between the two schools for fourth place. They'll need Wellington to upset Mulvane. They have tiebreaker over Augusta with a 42-35 win in Week 3. They lose to tiebreaker to McPherson after a week 2, 44-0 loss. Those two play each other, so that will eliminate that from them. The best case scenario is Augusta winning, Andover Central losing, creating a 4-team tiebreaker and then let it all go wild.
Worst case scenario: No. 8 in 4A West
Buhler blows out Circle and the T-Birds are relegated to the eighth seed in the West after Independence beats Rose Hill. They would most likely create a rematch with El Dorado.
Most likely scenario: No. 7 in the West
Win or loss, expect the T-Birds to stay in this spot. They beat up El Dorado pretty good, who gave Buhler a tough test. So, the odds are trending a bit in Circle's favor. They probably won't get too much help above. So, seventh it is.
Current place: 5th in 2A-6
District record & Average Point differential (APD): 1-3, -10.5
Week 8 game: vs. Belle Plaine
A win over Belle Plaine will put Douglass at fourth in the district. A loss would eliminate Douglass and they would most likely play Sterling in Week 9.
Current place: 9th in 4A West
Average Point differential (APD): -0.29
Week 8 game: vs. Wellington
Best case scenario: No. 8 in 4A West
Pretty simple for El Dorado, a win and an Indy loss to Rose Hill and the Wildcats are hosting a playoff game. A win and an Indy win, Indy gets the home game.
Worst case scenario: No. 10 in 4A West
A big loss to Winfield and a large win for Ark City over Andover Central and the Wildcats are relegated one spot from their current position. They would own some tiebreakers over a lot of teams as they've played in a lot of close games.
Most likely scenario: No. 9 in the West
We're most likely getting a rematch with Indy for the Wildcats as Indy could beat Rose Hill.
Current place: 5th in 8M-1-D2
District record & Average Point differential (APD): 1-3, -15.5
Week 8 game: vs. Udall
Since Flinthills beat Oxford (70-68) in Week 4, the Mustangs are in the playoffs as long as Oxford doesn't upset Chase County. An Oxford miracle would leave the Mustangs on the outside looking in.
Current place: 4th in 1A-4
District record & Average Point differential (APD): 2-2, +9
Week 8 game: at Elkhart
Best case scenario: 3rd in 1A-4
For Remington, their cancellation against Stanton County is looming large. It would have created a tiebreaker scenario. Instead, we're left to see what happens between two other teams. A win against Elkhart, who's currently third in the district and they're in and in third place in the district. The Broncos are in the playoffs with a loss and a Stanton County loss.
Worst case scenario: out of the playoffs, 5th.
If the Broncos go to Elkhart and catch a loss (Remington beat Elkhart 33-13 last year), and Stanton County beats Wichita Independent, Remington is going to be bounced out of the playoffs.
Most likely scenario: 3rd in the district
They're favored to beat Elkhart (23-point favorites according to MasseyRatings.com). So, Stanton County gets left out no matter what as Elkhart would be 3-3 and Stanton would be 2-3.
Current place: 13th in 4A West
Average Point differential (APD): -4.57
Week 8 game: vs. Independence
Best case scenario: No. 10 in 4A West
A win over Independence will move the Rockets up at least one spot as they hop Ulysses with their 2-4 record. If Wellington, Ark City and Winfield all catch losses, the Rockets could jump as high as No. 10 and that's a real chance because all those teams will be underdogs.
Worst case scenario: No. 14 in 4A West
A loss to Indy and a Winfield win over El Dorado would push the Rose Hill down a spot. With both teams below them being winless, there is no chance they drop.
Most likely scenario: No. 11 in the West
There might be an upset and they should beat Indy (-17.5 favorite). It's going to be dependent on the district point averages to where they finish. The Rockets have shown to be strong end of the season finishers.